Publications

Failure to detect and manage heterogeneity between clinical trials included in meta-analysis may lead to misinterpretation of summary effect estimates. This may ultimately compromise the validity of the results of the meta-analysis. Typically, when heterogeneity between trials is detected, researchers use sensitivity or subgroup analysis to manage it. However, both methods fail to explain why heterogeneity existed in the first place. Here we propose a novel methodology that relies on Rough Set Theory (RST) to detect, explain, and manage the sources of heterogeneity applicable to meta-analysis performed on individual patient data (IPD). The method exploits the RST relations of discernibility and indiscernibility to create homogeneous groups of patients. We applied our methodology on a dataset of 1,111 patients enrolled in 9 randomized controlled trials studying the effect of two transplantation procedures in the management of hematologic malignancies. Our method was able to create three subgroups of patients with remarkably low statistical heterogeneity values (16.8%, 0% and 0% respectively). The proposed methodology has the potential to automatize and standardize the process of detecting and managing heterogeneity in IPD meta-analysis. Future work involves investigating the applications of the proposed methodology in analyzing treatment effects in patients belonging to different risk groups, which will ultimately assist in personalized healthcare decision making.

BACKGROUND: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is considered to be a hepatic manifestation of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and the most common chronic liver disease worldwide. The association between NAFLD and colorectal adenoma has been investigated in multiples studies but the results have been conflicting. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate this in asymptomatic patients who underwent screening colonoscopy.

METHODS: We searched the literatures of all languages from PubMed, EMBASE and the Cochrane library from January 1, 1980 through July 15, 2014. Combined and subgroup analyses stratified by study designs, study locations, characteristics of adenoma (location, size, number, and advanced adenoma) were performed.

RESULTS: Four cross-sectional and one cohort studies with a total of 6,263 subjects were included in the meta-analysis. NAFLD was significantly associated with colorectal adenoma [pooled odds ratio (OR) 1.74, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.53-1.97]. The association was more significant in Asian population (pooled OR =1.77, 95% CI: 1.52-2.05, n=3 studies), compared to European/North American population (pooled OR =1.42, 95% CI: 0.75-2.67, n=2 studies). NAFLD was significantly associated with the number of colorectal adenoma (pooled OR =1.78, 95% CI: 1.10-2.86, n=2 studies), but not the location, size, or presence of advanced adenoma.

CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest NAFLD is significantly associated with the presence of colorectal adenoma in asymptomatic patients undergoing screening colonoscopy. This finding provides additional risk stratifications for applying colorectal cancer (CRC) screening strategies. However, more studies of western population are needed to further investigate the ethnic disparity.

PURPOSE: To investigate factors, which influence institutional review boards' (IRBs') decision to approve or not approve clinical studies, a nationwide vignette-based online survey of IRB members was conducted.

METHODS: A factorial design was used, whereby seven aspects of each hypothetical study were randomly varied in 15 phrases in each vignette to produce unique vignettes. Participants indicated the degree of study approval and described factors influencing approval decision. Qualitative responses were thematically content analyzed.

RESULTS: Sixteen themes were obtained from 208 participants from 42 institutions. Uncertainty, adherence, study design, and harms were frequently and intensely cited to influence study approval. Analysis of two extreme subgroups (approvers vs. nonapprovers) showed that uncertainty influenced approval decisions, odds ratios (OR) = 3.5 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3-9.8) and OR = 3.2 (95% CI, 1.1-8.9), respectively, based on theme frequency and theme intensity, ignoring multiple observations per person. Taking into consideration multiple observations per person, similar results were obtained for uncertainty: OR = 8.9 (95% CI, 0.93-85.4).

CONCLUSIONS: Perceived uncertainty about benefits and harms of a proposed intervention is a key driver in IRB members' approval of clinical trials. This, in turn, calls for improved standardization in the communications of information on benefits and harms in the research protocols considered by the IRBs.

INTRODUCTION: Diverticulosis and colorectal polyps increase in frequency as the population ages. Proposed common mechanisms for both include lack of dietary fiber, increased saturated fats, and slow colonic transit time. The association of diverticulosis and colorectal polyps has been previously reported with conflicting results. Despite sharing common epidemiologic predisposing factors, the association between diverticulosis and colon polyps remains unclear and needs better clarification.

AIM: The primary aim of our study is to evaluate if there is any association between diverticular disease and colorectal polyps.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study. All consecutive patients who underwent colonoscopy between January 2009 and December 2011 were included, except those with history of inflammatory bowel disease, polyposis syndrome, and poor bowel preparation. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to analyze the association between colon polyps and diverticulosis. Hyperplastic polyps were excluded from the statistical analysis, and only pre-cancerous adenomas were included.

RESULTS: A total of 2,223 patients met the inclusion criteria. The prevalence of colorectal polyps in patients with diverticulosis was significantly higher than those without diverticulosis (odds ratio (OR) 1.54; 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.27-1.80, p = 0.001). This association was found significant for all locations of polyps and all histological subtypes. There was also a statistically significant association between age, presence of diverticulosis, and colorectal polyps (OR 1.03; 95 % CI 1.02-1.04). The incidence of colorectal polyps increases as age advances in patients with diverticulosis, with the highest association in patients >70 years of age (OR 3.55; 95 % CI 2.50-5.04). There was no significant association between indication for colonoscopy and presence of colorectal polyps in patients with diverticulosis (OR 0.98; 95 % CI 0.95-1.01). The incidence of diverticulitis was low (<1 %), and there was no association between diverticulitis and colon polyps.

CONCLUSION: There is a significant association between diverticulosis and synchronous pre-cancerous colorectal polyps (adenomas). Patients with diverticulosis have a higher risk of colorectal polyps as compared to those without. This observation needs further validation by a large prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: According to the threshold model, when faced with a decision under diagnostic uncertainty, physicians should administer treatment if the probability of disease is above a specified threshold and withhold treatment otherwise. The objectives of the present study are to a) evaluate if physicians act according to a threshold model, b) examine which of the existing threshold models [expected utility theory model (EUT), regret-based threshold model, or dual-processing theory] explains the physicians' decision-making best.

METHODS: A survey employing realistic clinical treatment vignettes for patients with pulmonary embolism and acute myeloid leukemia was administered to forty-one practicing physicians across different medical specialties. Participants were randomly assigned to the order of presentation of the case vignettes and re-randomized to the order of "high" versus "low" threshold case. The main outcome measure was the proportion of physicians who would or would not prescribe treatment in relation to perceived changes in threshold probability.

RESULTS: Fewer physicians choose to treat as the benefit/harms ratio decreased (i.e. the threshold increased) and more physicians administered treatment as the benefit/harms ratio increased (and the threshold decreased). When compared to the actual treatment recommendations, we found that the regret model was marginally superior to the EUT model [Odds ratio (OR) = 1.49; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00 to 2.23; p = 0.056]. The dual-processing model was statistically significantly superior to both EUT model [OR = 1.75, 95% CI 1.67 to 4.08; p < 0.001] and regret model [OR = 2.61, 95% CI 1.11 to 2.77; p = 0.018].

CONCLUSIONS: We provide the first empirical evidence that physicians' decision-making can be explained by the threshold model. Of the threshold models tested, the dual-processing theory of decision-making provides the best explanation for the observed empirical results.

BACKGROUND: Allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HCT) is associated with improved outcomes for people with various hematologic diseases; however, the morbidity and mortality resulting from acute and subsequently chronic graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) pose a serious challenge to wider applicability of allo-HCT. Intravenous methotrexate in combination with a calcineurin inhibitor, cyclosporine or tacrolimus, is a widely used regimen for the prophylaxis of acute GVHD, but the administration of methotrexate is associated with a number of adverse events. Mycophenolate mofetil, in combination with a calcineurin inhibitor, has been used extensively in people undergoing allo-HCT. Conflicting results regarding various clinical outcomes following allo-HCT have been observed when comparing mycophenolate mofetil-based regimens against methotrexate-based regimens for acute GVHD prophylaxis.

PRIMARY OBJECTIVE: to assess the effect of mycophenolate mofetil versus methotrexate for prevention of acute GVHD in people undergoing allo-HCT.

SECONDARY OBJECTIVES: to evaluate the effect of mycophenolate mofetil versus methotrexate for overall survival, prevention of chronic GVHD, incidence of relapse, treatment-related harms, nonrelapse mortality, and quality of life.

SEARCH METHODS: We searched Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) and MEDLINE from inception to March 2014. We handsearched conference abstracts from the last two meetings (2011 and 2012) of relevant societies in the field. We searched ClinicalTrials.gov, Novartis clinical trials database (www.novctrd.com), Roche clinical trial protocol registry (www.roche-trials.com), Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR), and the metaRegister of Controlled Trials for ongoing trials.

SELECTION CRITERIA: Two review authors independently reviewed all titles/abstracts and selected full-text articles for inclusion. We included all references that reported results of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of mycophenolate mofetil versus methotrexate for the prophylaxis of GVHD among people undergoing allo-HCT in this review.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently extracted data on outcomes from all studies and compared prior to data entry and analysis. We expressed results as risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for dichotomous outcomes and hazard ratios (HR) and 95% CIs for time-to-event outcomes. We pooled the individual study effects using the random-effects model. Estimates lower than one indicate that mycophenolate mofetil was favored over methotrexate.

MAIN RESULTS: We included three trials enrolling 177 participants (174 participants analyzed). All participants in the trials by Keihl et al. and Bolwell et al. received cyclosporine while all participants enrolled in the trial by Perkins et al. received tacrolimus. However, the results did not differ by the type of calcineurin inhibitor employed (cyclosporine versus tacrolimus). There was no evidence for a difference between mycophenolate mofetil versus methotrexate for the outcomes of incidence of acute GVHD (RR 1.25; 95% CI 0.75 to 2.09; P value = 0.39, very low quality evidence), overall survival (HR 0.73; 95% CI 0.45 to 1.17; P value = 0.19, low-quality evidence), median days to neutrophil engraftment (HR 0.77; 95% CI 0.51 to 1.17; P value = 0.23, low-quality evidence), incidence of relapse (RR 0.84; 95% CI 0.52 to 1.38; P value = 0.50, low-quality evidence), non-relapse mortality (RR 1.21; 95% CI 0.62 to 2.36; P value = 0.57, low-quality evidence), and incidence of chronic GVHD (RR 0.92; 95% CI 0.65 to 1.30; P value = 0.62, low-quality evidence). There was low-quality evidence that mycophenolate mofetil compared with methotrexate improved platelet engraftment period (HR 0.87; 95% CI 0.81 to 0.93; P value < 0.0001, low-quality evidence). There was low-quality evidence that mycophenolate mofetil compared with methotrexate resulted in decreased incidence of severe mucositis (RR 0.48; 95% CI 0.32 to 0.73; P value = 0.0006, low-quality evidence), use of parenteral nutrition (RR 0.48; 95% CI 0.26 to 0.91; P value = 0.02, low-quality evidence), and medication for pain control (RR 0.76; 95% CI 0.63 to 0.91; P value = 0.002, low-quality evidence). Overall heterogeneity was not detected in the analysis except for the outcome of neutrophil engraftment. None of the included studies reported any outcomes related to quality of life. Overall quality of evidence was low.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The use of mycophenolate mofetil compared with methotrexate for primary prevention of GVHD seems to be associated with a more favorable toxicity profile, without an apparent compromise on disease relapse, transplant-associated mortality, or overall survival. The effects on incidence of GVHD between people receiving mycophenolate mofetil compared with people receiving methotrexate were uncertain. There is a need for additional high-quality RCTs to determine the optimal GVHD prevention strategy. Future studies should take into account a comprehensive view of clinical benefit, including measures of morbidity, symptom burden, and healthcare resource utilization associated with interventions.

BACKGROUND: Systematic review (SR) of randomized controlled trials (RCT) is the gold standard for informing treatment choice. Decision analyses (DA) also play an important role in informing health care decisions. It is unknown how often the results of DA and matching SR of RCTs are in concordance. We assessed whether the results of DA are in concordance with SR of RCTs matched on patient population, intervention, control, and outcomes.

METHODS: We searched PubMed up to 2008 for DAs comparing at least two interventions followed by matching SRs of RCTs. Data were extracted on patient population, intervention, control, and outcomes from DAs and matching SRs of RCTs. Data extraction from DAs was done by one reviewer and from SR of RCTs by two independent reviewers.

RESULTS: We identified 28 DAs representing 37 comparisons for which we found matching SR of RCTs. Results of the DAs and SRs of RCTs were in concordance in 73% (27/37) of cases. The sensitivity analyses conducted in either DA or SR of RCTs did not impact the concordance. Use of single (4/37) versus multiple data source (33/37) in design of DA model was statistically significantly associated with concordance between DA and SR of RCTs.

CONCLUSIONS: Our findings illustrate the high concordance of current DA models compared with SR of RCTs. It is shown previously that there is 50% concordance between DA and matching single RCT. Our study showing the concordance of 73% between DA and matching SR of RCTs underlines the importance of totality of evidence (i.e. SR of RCTs) in the design of DA models and in general medical decision-making.

BACKGROUND: Patient outcomes critically depend on accuracy of physicians' judgment, yet little is known about individual differences in cognitive styles that underlie physicians' judgments. The objective of this study was to assess physicians' individual differences in cognitive styles relative to age, experience, and degree and type of training.

METHODS: Physicians at different levels of training and career completed a web-based survey of 6 scales measuring individual differences in cognitive styles (maximizing v. satisficing, analytical v. intuitive reasoning, need for cognition, intolerance toward ambiguity, objectivism, and cognitive reflection). We measured psychometric properties (Cronbach's α) of scales; relationship of age, experience, degree, and type of training; responses to scales; and accuracy on conditional inference task.

RESULTS: The study included 165 trainees and 56 attending physicians (median age 31 years; range 25-69 years). All 6 constructs showed acceptable psychometric properties. Surprisingly, we found significant negative correlation between age and satisficing (r = -0.239; P = 0.017). Maximizing (willingness to engage in alternative search strategy) also decreased with age (r = -0.220; P = 0.047). Number of incorrect inferences negatively correlated with satisficing (r = -0.246; P = 0.014). Disposition to suppress intuitive responses was associated with correct responses on 3 of 4 inferential tasks. Trainees showed a tendency to engage in analytical thinking (r = 0.265; P = 0.025), while attendings displayed inclination toward intuitive-experiential thinking (r = 0.427; P = 0.046). However, trainees performed worse on conditional inference task.

CONCLUSION: Physicians capable of suppressing an immediate intuitive response to questions and those scoring higher on rational thinking made fewer inferential mistakes. We found a negative correlation between age and maximizing: Physicians who were more advanced in their careers were less willing to spend time and effort in an exhaustive search for solutions. However, they appeared to have maintained their "mindware" for effective problem solving.

Acute and chronic graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) remain major obstacles for successful allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation. Extracorporeal photopheresis (ECP) modulates immune cells, such as alloreactive T cells and dendritic cells, and improves GVHD target organ function(s) in steroid-refractory GVHD patients. We performed a systematic review to evaluate the totality of evidence regarding the efficacy of ECP for treatment of acute and chronic steroid-refractory or steroid-dependent GVHD. Nine studies, including 1 randomized controlled trial, met inclusion criteria, with a total of 323 subjects. In pooled analyses, overall response rates (ORR) were .69 (95% confidence interval [CI], .34 to .95) and .64 (95% CI, .47 to .79) for acute and chronic GVHD, respectively. In acute GVHD organ-specific responses, ECP resulted in the highest ORR for cutaneous, with .84 (95% CI, .75 to .92), followed by gastrointestinal with .65 (95% CI, .52 to .78). Similar response rates were seen in chronic GVHD involving the skin and gastrointestinal tract. Conversely, ORR for chronic GVHD involving the lungs was only .15 (95% CI, 0 to .5). In chronic GVHD, grades 3 to 4 adverse events were reported at .38 (95% CI, .06 to .78). ECP-related mortality rates were extremely low. Rates of immunosuppression discontinuation were .55 (95% CI, .40 to .70) and .23 (95% CI, .07 to .44) for acute and chronic GVHD, respectively. In summary, albeit limited by numbers of available studies, pooled analyses of prospective studies demonstrate encouraging responses after ECP treatment in acute and chronic GVHD after failing corticosteroids. Further research efforts are needed to improve organ-specific responses.